The Retirement Problem Congress Keeps Avoiding: The Third Rail Podcast

Social Security Trust Fund Depletion: What Retirees Should Know

The projected Social Security trust fund depletion around 2032 is no longer a distant concern. Experts say Congress faces increasing pressure to address the shortfall before automatic benefit reductions become the default outcome.

What Changed and Why It Matters

The projected depletion of Social Security’s retirement trust fund around 2032 is no longer a distant problem, according to Jason Fichtner, executive director of the Retirement Income Institute at LIMRA.

If Congress fails to act, payroll tax revenue would cover only about 75% to 80% of scheduled benefits, raising the prospect of benefit cuts for millions of retirees.

The debate is often framed as a choice between higher taxes, lower benefits or some combination of both. But Fichtner argues the larger challenge is preserving public confidence in the program while protecting those least able to absorb the impact of change.

The discussion also extends beyond Social Security. Fichtner and Jae Oh, CFP®, author of Maximize Your Medicare and a fellow at the Retirement Income Institute, said retirement planning increasingly requires integrating healthcare costs, taxes, Medicare premiums and income strategies rather than treating them as separate decisions.

What This Means for You

Social Security is not disappearing

Policymakers face growing pressure to address trust fund depletion before 2032.

Younger workers may bear more of the burden

Any solution could involve higher taxes, lower benefits or both.

Healthcare and tax decisions matter

Medicare premiums, taxes and healthcare costs can materially affect retirement income.

Guaranteed income is gaining attention

Retirees are increasingly looking for predictable income sources.

A Benefit Reduction Is the Default If Congress Does Nothing

Fichtner stressed that the issue is not Social Security becoming insolvent but rather the retirement trust fund that helps finance benefits. Current projections place trust fund depletion around 2032.

“If Congress does nothing, then the default is Social Security can only pay out in benefits what it collects in revenues,” Fichtner said.

That would result in roughly a 20% reduction in benefits. Policymakers could either reduce payments across the board or delay payments until sufficient payroll taxes are collected, but the effect on beneficiaries would be similar.

Fixing Social Security Will Require Trade-Offs

According to Fichtner, lawmakers essentially have three options: increase revenue, reduce benefits or provide additional funding from general government revenues.

Potential solutions include:

Raising payroll taxes

Increasing the taxable wage cap

Finding alternative revenue sources

Fichtner cited carbon taxes and financial transaction taxes as examples of ideas that could supplement Social Security financing.

Benefit changes could include adjustments to retirement ages, cost-of-living calculations or benefit formulas. The challenge is finding a mix that remains politically acceptable while minimizing hardship.

Younger Workers May Bear More of the Burden

Fichtner noted that many reform proposals protect current retirees and those nearing retirement because they have less time to adjust.

That means younger workers could face higher taxes today and lower benefits in the future.

“You’re going to be relying on younger generations to bear more of the burden both on the benefit side and the payroll tax side,” he said.

The Retirement Model Has Changed

Fichtner argued that the traditional three-legged stool of retirement security — Social Security, pensions and personal savings — no longer functions as originally designed because private-sector pensions have largely disappeared.

That leaves retirees increasingly dependent on 401(k)s and other defined-contribution plans.

“We’ve done a very good job of saying save, save, save, accumulate, accumulate, accumulate. Then you get to retirement, we say have fun, you’re on your own.”

As a result, retirees must figure out how to convert accumulated assets into dependable income.

Guaranteed Income Is Gaining Attention

Fichtner believes retirement planning should focus less on maximizing returns and more on creating sustainable income.

Social Security already functions as an inflation-adjusted lifetime annuity, and other guaranteed income sources can help retirees cover essential expenses and reduce anxiety about market volatility.

He noted that attitudes toward annuities are evolving as advisers increasingly present them as tools for creating retirement paychecks rather than investment products.

Healthcare Planning Is Becoming a Retirement Issue

Oh said retirement planning often overlooks healthcare, even though it may be one of the largest variables affecting household finances.

Capital gains, Roth conversions, Medicare premiums and ACA-related costs can create ripple effects that alter retirement outcomes.

A decision that lowers taxes today could increase Medicare premiums later.

“Everything affects everything,” Oh said.

His forthcoming research focuses on integrating healthcare costs, taxes, longevity and retirement income planning into a single framework.

Rather than replacing advisers, Oh believes technology will strengthen their ability to help retirees navigate these increasingly connected decisions.